Suppose that there are two candidates in the upcoming presidential election, candidate A and candidate B. Sara notes that she has discussed the presidential election candidates with 15 friends, and 10 said that they are voting for candidate A. Sara is therefore convinced that candidate A will win the election because A gets more than 50 percent of votes.
Answer the following questions:
Based on what you now know about statistical inference,
is Sara’s conclusion a logical conclusion? Why or why not?
How many friend samples Sara should have in order to draw the conclusion with 95 percent confidence interval? Why?
How would you explain your conclusion to Sara without using any statistical jargon? Why?
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